By Joan Cook, R.N.
MeritCare Infection Control Manager
Pandemics: What we know and don't know
To explain an "influenza pandemic," let's begin with what we know:
- Viruses that cause influenza (flu) are always changing, usually in small ways. A pandemic is triggered when a new type of virus appears – one that is very different from the previous common strains.
- Because people have no immunity to the new virus, it can spread quickly, infecting hundreds of thousands of people. Consider the scene in Fargo in 1918: On Oct. 6 – 125 cases, on Oct. 9 – 2,000 cases, and by Oct. 15, the Forum was reporting doctors and nurses were near breakdown from exhaustion. One out of three people became ill and 200 people died over three months' time.
- Pandemics have been happening for centuries, usually at 25-to 30-year intervals. In the past century we have had three: A severe pandemic in 1918, a moderate pandemic in 1957 and a mild pandemic in 1968.
The big unknown is not if we will have another pandemic, but when. And when it occurs, will it be mild, moderate or severe? We cannot know until it happens, which is why it's important to hope for the best-case scenario, but plan and prepare for the worst.
Certainly it would be nice if we could include vaccines and treatment in the plan, but that's not realistic. Once a strain is known, a vaccine takes several months to develop and even longer to manufacture on a large scale. As for treatment: Once you have the virus, the medication Tamiflu® may work, but its availability would be limited. This is why, in pandemic preparedness, we put great importance on "non-pharmaceutical (non-medicine) interventions," including covering your cough, hand washing and more. (See related "Five healthy habits" at right.)
Two additional tips that could be very helpful in the case of a pandemic:
- If you become ill, avoid situations where you might expose other individuals. This means staying home from work and staying away from gatherings of people.
- Part of preparedness is making sure you have the supplies ahead of time, possibly including face masks and respirators. To learn more about the U.S. Centers for Disease Control's recently issued guidelines, visit pandemicflu.gov. In an actual pandemic, if officials advised facemasks and respirators, these items may be in limited supply.
In preparing for a pandemic, you don't want to live in denial, thinking it could never happen. But you also don't want to be paralyzed with fear, believing there's nothing you can do. You can do something: work healthy habits into your life, get your annual flu shot, stock up on health supplies, and always, stay informed. One of the best cures for anxiety is accurate information.
Learn more about influenza.
Learn five healthy habits to stop flu spread.
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